Posted on April 28, 2009 by Adam
I’m always looking for ways to increase my chances of placing winning trades. One way to tip the probabilities in favor is buying assets that are displaying relative strength and selling/shorting those that are displaying relative weakness.
What is relative strength exactly? Relative strength is the tendency of a stock, group of stocks, or asset class [...]
Posted on April 23, 2009 by Adam
Where is the market going to go next week? If I had to guess, I would say down. Earlier this week we broke an important upward sloping trendline, which was coincident with a Point and Figure sell signal in the S&P 500. That was the first sell signal since February! The price objective of this [...]
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Posted on March 17, 2009 by Adam
Lately I have been watching the VIX very carefully. It’s movements have been quite actionable, and even predictable to some extent. Over the last couple of months I have watched the VIX steadily trend higher. Last week, the VIX broke down beneath that trendline, acting as a confirming indicator for the current rally.
If you don’t [...]
Posted on March 6, 2009 by Adam
I keep hear people droning on about whether or not “This is capitulation?” Everybody seems so focused on whether or not today will be the day when prices wash out completley forming a bear market bottom, sending us into a roaring bull market.
If that’s what you’re looking for, just give up.
Even if we do get [...]
Posted on February 25, 2009 by Adam
Good Morning Traders,
Yesterday’s sharp rally came as no surprise to me, given the grossly oversold nature of most broader market indicators. As such, I was able to reap the rewards by positioning myself slightly to the bullish side.
After the rally, we have inched our way north from extreme oversold levels, but an enormous amount of [...]
Posted on February 13, 2009 by Adam
Good morning traders,
Action seems like it’s found its way into the market. In case you missed it, a pretty bearish day ended with a monster rally in stocks. Even as the S&P 500 and the Dow both went on sell signals, bullish percent indicators still read bull confirmed, as bullish as it gets.
I think we [...]
Posted on February 11, 2009 by Adam
Well traders,
Nothing happened today - no significant price action. Stocks made a bit of progress, led by the financials, on what appeared to be a short covering rally after yesterday’s bear raid.
My opinion doesn’t really change here. If you look at the chart I put up yesterday, you will see that we are at an [...]
Posted on February 11, 2009 by Adam
Good Morning Traders,
If you haven’t wished the market luck this morning, you’re either sadistic or short. Either way, you can still enjoy the musical stylings of Toto.
If we can hold the line (***musical interlude***), that is, stay above S&P 815, then it looks like investors are buying the pullback we saw yesterday.
In my personal opinion, [...]
Posted on February 10, 2009 by Adam
Some pullback, huh?
With the dow down 400 points and the VIX spiking, I have to admit I feel a little bit more worried about the state of our economy. My opinion is that we ultimately have more deleveraging to do before this market can reset itself.
Then why in the world am I looking to buy [...]
Be on the lookout for an extended pullback.